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Salty Dawg Rally—What The Hell?

WW-6

I suspect that this post is not going to make me popular, but I’m seething about what’s happening with these rallies and offshore voyaging in general, so here goes—brace yourselves.

What the heck is going on here? As I understand it, 116 boats were registered in the Salty Dawg Rally and at least five of them required US Coast Guard assistance.

Regardless of the exact details, this is on top of several tragedies in other rallies in recent years and countless rescue missions for the US Coast Guard—well done the SAR crews—and commercial ships.

Now I don’t know exactly what the weather was like out there in early November when the problems occurred, and there is no question that the area off Hatteras can be a nasty place. But as far as I can see, having looked at the sea state and surface analysis for those days, the highest significant wave height was 3 meters (10-feet). See chart above. Which would indicate that it blew no harder than sustained—I’m not talking gusts or squalls here—near-gale Force 7 (28-33 knots), and that not for long (the chart of the 10th shows that it was all over by then).

Yes, that’s uncomfortable, and could even be dangerous in the Gulf Stream when blowing against the current. But no one should have entered the Stream if they were not sure they could cross before the weather got gnarly, so that excuse goes away.

SUR 7

My point is that this was at worst a near-gale at sea, more likely just a pretty normal frontal passage—not the Queens Birthday Storm or the 79 Fastnet—but nearly 5% of the fleet needed assistance. I think this is simply not good enough and reflects badly on all of us in the offshore voyaging community.

And it’s not just this year. In recent years the annual fall migration has turned into some kind of demolition derby, for crying out loud. Sure, bad stuff that requires assistance can happen to any of us, including me, but this is getting silly.

OK, enough ranting about what’s wrong, what are the causes and what can we do about it?

Avoid The Fall Rallies

I really encourage everyone, and particularly those with less ocean experience, to stay away from these rallies in the fall. In my opinion, they confer an illusion of safety in numbers, that encourages the unprepared and inexperienced to go to sea when they shouldn’t, combined with a herding sense of urgency to depart. Yes, I know the Salty Dawg didn’t have a set departure date, but the pressure to go with friends and other boats is still there.

It’s a Tough Passage

Rallies may have a place in the trade wind belt at the right time of year, but a fall crossing from the US East Coast to Bermuda and/or the Caribbean is one of the potentially toughest voyages you can do.

This I know. In 40 years of voyaging I took my worst ever caning (worse than anything I have encountered in the high latitudes) off Cape Hatteras on my way home to Bermuda one November.

The point is that, in my view, counter-intuitively, the tougher the passage the less desirable joining a rally is. And don’t even get me started on the dangers of rallies through the NW Passage!

And Getting Tougher

By the way, going south from the North American East Coast was always a tough passage, but I really think that climate change has made it harder still, to the point that I would now not count on a passage to Bermuda in the fall.

I might set up to go from say Newport or the Chesapeake (safer than Newport), but I would assume at least a 30% chance of waving it off completely—not something I would have said 15 years ago.

Basic Seamanship

I have ranted about this before but, just by looking at boats getting ready to go offshore, I can see that their owners are not putting proper effort into basic seamanship and preparation:

Bottom line, if a boat is not set up properly for offshore voyaging and the crew have not practiced all of the evolutions mentioned above, offshore, at night, in over 25 knots of wind, the boat does not belong at sea, and certainly not in the fall.

Weather Routing Delusions

I have saved what I think is the biggest reason for this sorry state of affairs for last. Back 40 years ago, when I first started ocean passaging, we were subjected to at least one gale, and maybe worse, on at least half the passages I went on. The reason was simple. We set a date to go, and when that day came, we went. That was just the way it was. Weather forecasts were pretty useless past 36 hours then, so why try to pick a window? We went to sea and dealt with what came.

The result of these frequent heavy weather experiences was that we knew better than to make the basic errors detailed above. That knowledge was just embedded in the sport of offshore sailing.

But about 20 years ago, much better weather forecasting became available and cruisers started buying routing packages from the professionals and listening to gifted and dedicated amateurs like Herb, of South Bound II fame. And gradually, over time, a very dangerous delusion set in.

A whole generation of offshore sailors, and aspiring ones, have got the idea, aided and abetted by the yachting press, the routers, and perhaps several easy passages, that if they just have a good enough forecaster on their side and wait long enough for a window, and blindly do exactly what the router tells them, they can go voyaging and never face a gale at sea. And they set their boats and themselves up on that assumption. Well, that’s…let me see if I can put this gently…bullshit.

Even today, forecasts are only reliable out about 72 hours, and that goes double for the fall in the North Atlantic. So any boat and crew that are planning on participating in the fall migration should be comfortable with the fact that they may be subjected to gale force winds at some point and that there’s a very real chance that they will experience a full-on storm at sea, and prepare accordingly. A boat and crew that is not confident in their ability, and willingness, to deal with that, should not go to sea, it’s that simple.

That’s OK

By the way, if you make the decision to limit your cruising to short coastal passages so that you don’t have to make the commitment in boat preparation and crew training to be safe on a multi-day offshore voyage, that’s absolutely fine and I won’t think any the less of you, and neither should anyone else.

In fact, in recent years, even though we maintain Morgan’s Cloud in full ocean crossing readiness and do still make challenging voyages, Phyllis and I have cut back on the number of multi-day offshore passages we do, in part because, as we get older, our willingness to subject ourselves to a gale at sea has diminished.

Bottom line, know your own and your boat’s limitations and sail within them.

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Jim Patek

John, I don’t often comment but I read almost all of your postings. Your rant was a good wake up for all of us, wherever we sail, and I found myself mentally ticking off Let’s Go!’s preparedness against your check list as I prepare for the next challenge. I found myself getting uncomfortable I am afraid. Thanks for the rant.

Jim

Svein Lamark

Very well spoken John! It is good that a very experienced off-shore racing and cruising captain like you says this. Safety should always be above other priorities. I am now sailing north in Danish waters going home to Norway for Christmas. I want very much to get home, but there is a very bad storm coming. I have found a safe harbor and will wait out the storm. That is always the best way to do it. But please show us some of your nice photos and not those ugly diagrams of bad weather.
Best regards Svein

Enno

Hi Svein
Lets hope you came home in one piece. Some harbours in Danmark did not fare too well in that particular storm.

Svein Lamark

Hi Enno
The storm Bodil became very bad. As you know some harbors are gone with the wind. I am fine and had no problems. Some long lines against the main directions of the storm did it. I still plan to celebrate Christmas with family and good friends in Lofoten. But it is storm season and one must be careful.

Svein Lamark

Thanks a lot John, but I will not go all that way in my slow sailboat. I will go aboard MS Vesterålen in Bergen the 16. of December. MS Vesterålen has 2 x 3000 hp Rolls-Royce diesels and belongs to Hurtigruten. We shall cruise north to North Cape, then east to the Russian border and back south to Lofoten. We stop in Lofoten two days (24 and 25) to celebrate Christmas. A plan like this has something in common with a rally: Because you follow a plan you might have to fight a storm you otherwise would have avoided. At present moment there are two bad storms in this waters. But I am very optimistic; Vesterålen is a good ship commanded by the best and most experienced captain of all the Hurtigruten captains, Mr. Klodiussen. Captain Klodiusssen has done this trip for 30 years and never had any accidents. Vesterålen has the best food of all the Hurtigruten ships. I will most likely come home heavier than I am to day.

Dick Stevenson

Dear John,
You find no disagreement from me in any of your positions: quite the contrary. And with regard to the self description of ranting: I do not see it: rather you take a position that is un (certainly under)-articulated in the often self-serving worlds of boat building, marine media and rally organizers.
I agree absolutely: the rally’s promise of a safety net is an illusion: one teaspoon of salt water in the SAT phone or SSB or its various connections and the vessel/crew is completely on their own and they should prepare for this possibility. Rallies are first and foremost (in practice) a social event and should in no way be considered a substitute for complete skipper responsibility for boat and crew safety. Furthermore, acceptance of a skipper and the vessel on a rally should not be understood, either by the skipper or, more importantly, the crew, as evidence that the skipper or boat is ready for the intended passage.
I have written about this issue in the past and thought it interesting to develop a realistic experiential list of requirements (beyond the writing of a check). I tried engaging a few in this endeavor, but got zilch response. My ideas went as follows: for an ocean passage greater than a few days, 20 of 25 skills/experiences must be under the skipper’s belt. These experiences could include: 1. Heaving to in near gale or above, 2. Bleeding your engine, 3. Three nights at sea, 4. A level of RYA proficiency, 5. Actual MOB practice in your vessel, 6. Setting reefs in a squall, etc. You get the idea. For less ambitious rallies, less demanding experiences would be required.
Rallies hold the promise of delivering much of what the cruising community has to offer that is wonderful: interesting people doing adventurous things and learning from each other. It is nice to have company at times. Rallies also hold potential of embodying/enabling much that is problematic in our community: the influence of money, skipper’s wishes for shortcuts, media’s investment in the rosy picture. It is the latter picture that prevails too often in my observation.
My best, Dick Stevenson, s/v Alchemy

Daria Blackwell

Hi John,
I just added a link to your rant on my blog on the same subject. http://aleriasadventures.blogspot.ie/2013/11/rallies_25.html
We’ve also been talking about climate change and how that is affecting long distance cruising. I’d love to hear a sailing climatologist’s perspective on that.
Cheers,
Daria

Dick Ehrlicher

Your comments ring true to this veteran of nothing more challenging than a 2 week coastal cruise, but some 50 years of reading and dreaming. I have one additional observation: It seems to me these rallies not only result in a false illusion of safety in numbers, they are much less safe in that with more boats out there, more get in trouble, overloading (as this one did) the rescue forces.