As you can imagine, I’m watching Hurricane Erin very carefully, and this morning, as is my habit, I was reading the forecast discussion when this jumped out at me:
After 36 hours, there has been a notable increase in forward speed among the models when Erin becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. These changes are most evident at days 4 and 5, with the new day 5 position about 600 n mi northeast of the previous day 5 forecast point.
Emphases mine
Just think about that for a moment…yes, you got it:
Yes, trip to Newfoundland significantly delayed. Maine has been glorious though as I wait for Erin to pass.
Hi Whitall,
Good to hear you are on the boat and enjoying her.
Last year we were in Havre Boucher at the western end of the Canso Straits with Hurricane Ernesto headed north. Both the Euro and US models had the storm passing east of Nova Scotia, with the Euro model showing the storm well east of NS. With that in mind we planned to transit the Strait the next morning, arrive in Canso and wait a day or so for the seas to settle down.
The next morning’s forecasts, Euro and US, showed Ernesto headed directly towards Halifax. On to plan B and we headed back towards. Charlottetown, PEI. After sailing halfway there, the forecast changed again showing the storm headed towards Newfoundland and well away from NS.
After spending a few extra days in PEI, we headed back towards Canso and the NS Coast, having learned not to put too much trust in long tern hurricane forecasts.
Hi David,
Sounds to me like you managed that well.
Never trust a hurricane … or hurricane forecasts??