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I know it’s been 7 years since this happened, but would you happen to have copies of the 500 mb charts for the 6 days leading up to the 17th? I think it would be educational to see what you saw that provided the advanced warning.
Hi Mike,
No, sorry, I don’t. That said, the charts above tell the story pretty well. As I remember the upper level trough was showing at least 5 days out and moving east, so that was the clue since it’s a pattern that is always dangerous when there is an hurricane forecast to interact with it. If you want to explore this further, we have a chapter on that: https://www.morganscloud.com/2017/10/24/weather-analysis-a-step-by-step-guide-part-3-learning-about-the-upper-level/
Although you will get the best feel for this by starting at the beginning of the Online Book: https://www.morganscloud.com/category/weather/book-weather-analysis/