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John,
This is brilliantly succinct and represents, in my opinion, the battle all of us do within ourselves over when to “pull the ripcord”. In emergency medicine, we always had to be on guard to avoid solely relying on what we had seen (bias confirmation/early closure), without also including what we had read or heard about. In other words, we form emotional “motivating, probability forming” memory from things we’ve done and what has happened to us; whereas we form intellectual “probability debating” memory from things we’ve read or heard about but not experienced. Add in personal risk aversion/tolerance and I believe ten different people will give ten different probabilities about any unfamiliar scenario.
Best,
Paul
Hi Paul,
That makes sense and I can certainly see the similarity to emergency medicine. Thanks for the useful expansion on the though.
This may be a variation on the theme of differential risk between things you know you don’t know and things you don’t know you don’t know.
Absolutely. I have quoted Mr Rumsfeld many times in the past.